Actually, a fairly slow day. Rasmussen is being particularly Ras-sy today, making the great horse-race site Swing State Project look pretty great for referring to their latest rash of polls as “another steaming pile of Rasmussen”.
Other than that, a few candidates leap into, while other notables leap out of, the 2010 cycle. It’s all here on the Monday edition of the Wrap….
THE U.S. SENATE
FL-Sen: PPP Hints That Crist Is Toast In Sunshine State
The actual numbers won’t be released until tomorrow, but an early tease from the polling crew at PPP tells us that the one-time GOP frontrunner, Charlie Crist, is in unbelievably deep shit as he tries to claim his party’s nomination for the US Senate. One key stat: more Republicans want to see him out of office that want to see him in either the Senate or in the Governor’s mansion. And it’s not even close: 56% of GOPers want him run out of office. Yikes.
KY-Sen: A Non-Rasmussen Poll (!) Says Look For Paul-Mongiardo Race
Here is an interesting poll, and not only because it is that beautiful luxury–a non-Rasmussen poll. SurveyUSA heads into the Bluegrass State, and polls the primaries for the US Senate that are now about two months away. They find, as other pollsters have done, that Rand Paul is well out in front in the GOP primary (42-27) over Trey Grayson. Meanwhile, they somewhat surprisingly find Dan Mongiardo with a big lead over Jack Conway on the Democratic side (45-27). Most pollsters have had that race considerably closer. Strangely, the SUSA team polled generics for the general election, and they give the GOP just a single-point lead (43-42) over the Democrats.
ND-Sen: Democrats Lose Another Prospect In Open Seat Senate Bid
Democrats have now lost arguably their next-best alternative in the Senate race to take on GOP Governor John Hoeven. Kristin Hedger, who ran very respectably for the Secretary of State’s office a few years back despite being only in her mid-20s, seemed interested a month back, only hedging that she’d defer to Heidi Heitkamp, the former state AG. But Heitkamp stepped out last week, and Hedger followed suit today. That leaves only state legislator Tracy Potter in the Dem field to try to defeat Hoeven, whose polling numbers are pretty formidable.
THE U.S. HOUSE
CA-47: Did GOP Get Addition By Subtraction? Pham Is Out
The GOP had a bit of an embarrassment of riches in the California 47th, as Republicans had two well-funded candidates in state Assemblyman Van Tran and well-funded businessman Quang Pham. That changed at the start of the weekend, when Pham (who was already well into six figures in that race) decided to stand down from his Congressional bid. On paper, this would seem to be a victory for the GOP, since Van Tran no longer has to deal with Pham. It might also be a defeat for the GOP, however, as Tran has had some pretty sizeable hiccups in his campaign. In fact, polling done by local entities in the OC had Tran actually running third. For what its worth, another scandal-tarred GOPer is also in the field now as former Sanchez opponent Tan Nguyen, who is awaiting federal trial on charges related to that campaign, announced a bid.
PA-12: Penn Dems Pick Critz For Special Election
It seemed likely after the local Democrats tabbed him over the weekend (despite an interesting rumor that his candidacy was in trouble), but this afternoon, it was made official: former Murtha staffer Mark Critz will be the Democratic nominee in the May 18th special election to replace the late John Murtha. Critz defeated former state treasurer Barbara Hafer 30-18 in the ballot among the party’s state Executive Committee.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
CO-Gov: Rasmussen Sees Republican Surge (No, Really!!)
Last month, Rasmussen made unusual headlines for them: they showed a Democrat surging into the lead in the open seat race to replace outgoing Dem Governor Bill Ritter. This month, they went back to being Rasmussen again, showing Republican frontrunner Scott McInnis with a six-point edge over Denver’s Democratic Mayor, John Hickenlooper (48-42). This marks a ten-point swing for the Republican, which does not seem to be supported by either (a) any new revelations on the ground or (b) any GOP surge in national polling as of late (the numbers have held rather steady, actually).
NV-Gov: Rasmussen Sees Best Dem Chance With Incumbent Gov
This is no surprise, since pretty much every pollster has seen the same scenario, but Rasmussen confirms that the path to victory for the Democrats in the Silver State is through Jim Gibbons. The deeply unpopular incumbent GOP Governor loses to likely Democratic nominee Rory Reid (44-36), while the other two potential Republicans hold leads over the Democrat, according to Ras. In typical Ras fashion, their outcome in the likely battle between Reid and former federal judge Brian Sandoval is lopsided (53-35) in the Republicans’ favor.
OH-Gov: Rasmussen Sees Very Different Race From Quinnipiac
Last week, the team at Quinnipiac spied a Democratic comeback, with Governor Ted Strickland retaking the lead from GOP hopeful John Kasich. Not surprisingly, Rasmussen goes 180 degrees the other way, finding Kasich well out in front (49-38).


